Oscar Pool Suggestions… If You’re Interested

Many people enter an Oscar contest each year. Many fewer have any idea what they’re doing. So allow me to present to you the current Oscar odds (yeah, you can bet on Oscar… you can’t bet on damn near anything). This will tell you where picking an underdog is a good gamble versus where picking one is a big ol’ mistake. I’m only listing nine categories so this doesn’t go novella length. Here we go after the jump. Wheeee!

Best Actor Award:
Daniel Day-Lewis is a 20 to 1 favorite. That’s huge. The Pats were a 4 to 1 favorite in the Super Bowl by comparison. Take Day-Lewis and don’t think twice. The runner up right now is Johnny Depp at a 7.5 to 1 underdog… meaning for every buck you bet on Depp you’d get $7.50 back. For every dollar you wagered on Daniel you’d get five cents back. Clearly Vegas likes Daniel, eh? (I promise no more math examples, just getting everyone on the same page)

Best Actress:
It’s between Julie Christie and Marion Cottilard. You can stow any Juno love, The Academy isn’t having it. Christie is a favorite, say 65% chance, but Cottilard is a decent gamble if you need a spoiler pick.

Best Supporting Actor:
Bardem will win this. Do not pick anyone else unless you get 100 to 1 odds and you’re only betting a dollar.

Best Supporting Actress
Easily the toughest category so we’ll break down each contender’s odds:
Cate Blanchett 1/1
Amy Ryan 2/1
Tilda Swinton 7/1
Ruby Dee 3/1
Saoirse Ronan 12/1

Okay, get rid of Dee because they gave her a sympathy Golden Globe. Ronan is too young to merit any real consideration. Swinton is a nice dark horse but she’s not my pick. Here’s the one category I suggest diverging in. You’re going to have to make one tough call and here is the place to do it. Take Amy Ryan against odds on favorite Blanchett and pray like hell.

Best Picture
Right now No Country for Old Men is about a 4 to 1 favorite. The only other contenders are There Will Be Blood (4 to 1 underdog) and Atonement (5 to 1 underdog). I would strongly suggest taking the freebee in No Country but Atonement is the route to go if you feel like being contrary.

Best Animated Film:
Ratatouille is an eight to one favorite. A nice easy one.

Best Director:
The Coens are four to one… just like the Pats were! If you want to go another way Paul Thomas Anderson is a long shot for There Will Be Blood.

Foreign Language Film
Katyn is the favorite, but Mongol is getting some late love. Flip a coin? No one has seen any of these so it comes down to the few hundred Academy members who voted.

Best Original Song
Only two songs can win it. Either “Falling Slowly” from Once or “That’s How You Know” from Enchanted. What you have to ask yourself is this: Will the three Enchanted nominations in the category split the vote? Personally, I think they will so I’d take the song from Once.

If enough people need/want more help I’ll post the other categories… I’m going to be making some serious dough on Oscar Sunday and I’d like to see my loving audience do the same!